Basketball · Panini Donruss Optic Downtown · Steal Sheet #1 pick · Medium confidence
Is the 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1 worth grading?
Last updated
A PSA 10 at more than 2× the PSA 9 with a 64% gem rate, but raw copies are hard to find.
Max buy price
$1,533.73
incl. shipping · highest raw price that still clears 20% expected net ROI · $1,383.73 if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier
GRADERaw supply is thin: one raw sale in the last 30 days ($1,100 on Oct 6).
Updated 2026-10-17.
Card data
- Set
- Panini Donruss Optic Downtown
- Year
- 2024
- Card #
- 1
- Raw average
- $1,297.25
- PSA 9
- $1,399.00
- PSA 10
- $2,978.50
- PSA pop
- 98 PSA 10s of 153 graded
- Gem rate
- 64.1%
Sources: SportsCardsPro averages as of Oct 17, 2026; PSA pop unchanged since Oct 14-16.
Recent PSA 9 sales: $1,350 (Sep 16), $1,375–$1,400 (Jul 30). Recent PSA 10 sales: $3,000 (Oct 5), $2,830 (Aug 31).
No live raw listing link as of Oct 17; raw supply is scarce.
Grading math
- Cost basis (raw average)
- $1,297.25
- PSA fee
- $199.00 · PSA Express
- Shipping + insurance
- $10.00
- PSA 10 price / chance
- $2,978.50 · 64.1%
- PSA 9 price / chance
- $1,399.00 · 35.9%
- Marketplace fee
- 13.25%
GRADE
Expected ROI 38.8% clears your 20% target.
- All-in cost
- $1,506.25
- Expected value (after fees)
- $2,091.26
- Expected profit
- $585.01
- Expected net ROI
- 38.8%
- Gross ROI (before selling fees)
- 61.1%
- Break-even PSA 10 odds
- 21.4%
How we got there
Expected graded value = 64.1% × $2,978.50 + 35.9% × $1,399.00 = $2,410.71. That sets the PSA tier: $199.00 covers declared values up to $2,500.00. After a 13.25% marketplace fee, the expected sale nets $2,091.26 against an all-in cost of $1,506.25. Our bar for a GRADE is 20% expected net ROI, which caps what you should pay at $1,533.73.
The scout's own gross estimate was about +77% (before selling fees and shipping, at a lower PSA fee). Our net figure is lower because it includes those costs.
Upcharge risk: a PSA 10 here is worth $2,978.50, above the $2,500.00 cap. If PSA bills at the 10 value ($349.00 tier), expected net ROI drops to 26.3% (GRADE).
Confidence: Medium. Raw supply is scarce (one raw sale in 30 days).
What to check before you buy or submit
- Centering front and back (Downtown/Optic borders show off-center fast)
- Corners under magnification — any softness kills the 10
- Edges for chipping, especially on dark/foil designs
- Surface print lines, dimples and scratches under angled light
- Buy only NM-sharp copies; judge from real photos, not stock images
Pop-report gem rates describe every copy ever graded, not the one in front of you. Comps and listings move; re-check prices before buying. See this pick in Steal Sheet #1 and on the track record.
FAQ
Is the 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1 worth grading?
Yes, at the right price. At a $1,297.25 cost basis, expected net ROI is 38.8% after the $199.00 PSA fee, $10.00 shipping and insurance, and a 13.25% selling fee. That clears our 20% bar for a GRADE.
What's the most I should pay for a raw 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1?
$1,533.73, including shipping. That is the highest raw price that still clears 20% expected net ROI at the $199.00 PSA tier. If PSA bills at the PSA 10 value instead, the cap drops to $1,383.73.
What is the PSA 10 gem rate for the 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1?
64.1%: 98 PSA 10s out of 153 graded, per the PSA population report as of October 17, 2026. That rate covers every copy ever graded, so inspect your own copy's centering, corners, edges and surface before counting on a 10.
Which PSA service level fits the 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1?
Expected graded value is $2,410.71 (64.1% × $2,978.50 + 35.9% × $1,399.00), which puts it in PSA Express at $199.00. A PSA 10 is worth $2,978.50, above that tier's cap, so PSA may upcharge to the $349.00 tier. Fees change often; confirm on psacard.com before you submit.
Not financial advice. See the disclaimer.